
Description:
Many authors want to be traditionally published because of the perceived prestige that comes with the name of a Big Publishing House.
Unfortunately, the publishing industry has changed A LOT in the last 20 years, and it's no longer a guarantee that signing with one of the Big 5 Traditional Publishers will make you big money.
In this episode, we're breaking down the first myth in publishing, which is the idea that traditional = success. To dive deeper into the results of the DOJ vs. Penguin Random House trial referenced in this episode, listen to the full breakdown on the Novel Marketing Podcast, found HERE.
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You are listening to The Novel Writing Podcast, Episode 165.
I'm your host, Colleen Mitchell. Grab a cup, cozy up, and let's get to writing!
Publishing Myths Series: Traditional Publishing Doesn't Guarantee Success
Today's episode is the first in our new Publishing Myths series, and we're coming in hot with this bold statement: going traditional does not mean you will be a successful author.
But what's even more important than the decision between traditional and indie is actually finishing your draft. That is step one in any publishing path, and you can do that with The 60 Day Novel Writing Challenge. Learn more about the Challenge at the link in the description.
The Stats Behind Traditional Publishing
All right, let me start off with some stats, the source for which you can also find in the description.
And shoutout to Blaze Ward, who talked about these stats at Author Nation in his talk on Breaking Discoverability.
Background on These Stats
They come from the results of a 2021 lawsuit between the Federal Department of Justice and Penguin Random House, which was trying to merge with Simon & Schuster. The DOJ brought this lawsuit to prevent that merger on antitrust grounds, and the government's concern was that the merger would result in lower advances to the top 1-2% of traditionally published authors with Penguin and Simon & Schuster, which the DOJ proved would occur if the merger proceeded.
AKA, this merger would hurt the top of the top authors.
The trial took place in 2022, and the court ruled in favor of the Department of Justice.
Keep in mind that the top 1-2% of trad authors in the Big 5 only account for like 0.1-0.2% of ALL published authors across ALL trad houses, small presses, and self-publishing. The Big Name Authors in that 1-2% are people like Stephen King, James Patterson, George R.R. Martin, John Grisham, Nora Roberts, and so on. Names you would recognize in an instant if you saw a book of theirs on the shelves of Barnes & Noble.
So filter these statistics through that lens.
Additionally, Penguin admitted that it hasn't grown organically in something like 10 years, and its only growth came from acquisitions such as the one it was trying to accomplish with Simon & Schuster.
This makes one wonder: if one of the Big 5 Trad Publishers can't grow its own business without buying up smaller companies, what about the other 4? How are THEY growing?
It's not good news for trad publishing.
The Reality of Traditional Publishing Success
During the lawsuit, Penguin was forced to admit that 85% of the books they publish don't, in their words, "live up to the publisher's expectations."Â That could mean a variety of things, but the main takeaway was that the vast majority of traditionally published books don't sell. Just period, full stop, don't sell.
In fact, they said, you might only sell 12 copies. TWELVE. COPIES.
And yes, that was an actual statistic stated in the trial that NOBODY questioned.
When a book doesn't live up to a publisher's expectations, that doesn't mean it doesn't live up to the author's expectations. The author might sell 200,000 copies, but if the publisher anticipated a million sales, that's 800,000 books that they have sitting in a warehouse somewhere that didn't sell, and that's just not good for the publisher—or for the author, especially if they had designs on a multi-book deal but the first one was a quote-unquote flop.
The Numbers Behind the Illusion
Let’s do some dirty math.
If about 85% of trad books don't live up to the publisher's expectations, and 1-2% of authors are getting six- or seven-figure advances on their book deals, that leaves 13-14% of trad authors whose books could be anywhere between barely breaking even and maybe providing a little bit of income that could range from a cup of coffee a month to actually paying your bills or funding your life… but not enough to buy a mansion.
All this to say that there's this illusion among authors, especially new ones, that being traditionally published means you're more likely to be successful as an author because of the name of the company on the spine of your book.
But that couldn't be further from the truth.
Every author who goes traditional believes that they are in that sliver between barely breaking even and Big Name Authors, whether or not they consciously know it, and whether or not they admit it.
Why Some Authors Still Choose Traditional Publishing
Authors have a lot of reasons to go with traditional publishing, and in many cases, trad is the right choice depending on the author's goals, the type of story being told, and whether the author has designs on a film adaptation of the book.
But genre fiction, which we talk about most on this podcast because that's what we write, is far less dependent upon a particular publishing house or imprint to be successful. People who read genre fiction don't care who publishes it, just that it gets into their hands so they can read it.
Unfortunately, for upwards of 98% of traditionally published authors, they can't rely on the fact that they're traditionally published to pay the bills.
The Harsh Truth About Traditional Publishing
Success, and in this context, financial success, is very much not guaranteed even if you land a deal with a trad publisher.
They're just not good at predicting which stories will become huge successes, and they actually prefer to "wait and see"Â if a book hits, which puts the onus of the launch almost entirely on you as the author, so that you have to prove to the publisher that your book is, in fact, worth it.
I almost want to say that I wish traditional was different, but that actually wouldn't be true because I very much love the indie publishing side despite all its flaws. However, the choice to pursue traditional is yours and yours alone, and I will always cheer on the authors who go for it, especially if they're clear on their reasons why, and they love those reasons.
Coming Up Next in the Publishing Myths Series
In any case, the next Publishing Myth we're going to cover is, surprise surprise, why INDIE doesn't guarantee success, but you'll have to wait a few weeks for that.
Final Thoughts & Call to Action
In the meantime, don't forget that you can finish YOUR FIRST DRAFT with The 60 Day Novel Writing Challenge, and you don't actually have to worry about trad vs. indie until after that point.
That's it for today's episode! Thanks for joining me, and remember, the first draft is supposed to be garbage.
Show Notes
Dive into the first episode of the Novel Writing Podcast with your host Colleen and her sometimes-guest Halie Fewkes Damewood! Here, we give you the gist of who we are, what we do, and what you can expect from this podcast.
What to do next…
Halie & Colleen are both authors! Find their books below:
Secrets of the Tally, by Halie Fewkes Damewood
The Chronicles of Talahm, by Colleen Mitchell
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